Taylor McGrath succeeds Thomas Casale as the college football expert for Action Network.
BAYLOR (+2.5) surpasses Tcu
It has been an incredible streak for TCU, which has won nine consecutive major games. But it’s time for a letdown game, and TCU is in a very difficult position.
The last time these two teams met, in November 2021, TCU defeated Baylor (7-1) at Fort Worth, ending the Bears’ championship ambitions. Saturday, Baylor will play TCU with College Football Playoff dreams on the line for the Horned Frogs. On Senior Day, of course. Discuss motivation.
Baylor will also have a favorable matchup on paper. The Bears are adept at avoiding TCU’s bread-and-butter, explosive run plays. In addition, Baylor quarterback Blake Shapen shredded a similar defensive system by throwing three touchdown passes against Iowa State’s 3-3-5 stack defense.
On October 1, 2022, TCU quarterback Maxx Duggan throws a pass against Oklahoma.
AP
If you’re still not convinced, consider the track record of Baylor head coach Dave Aranda. Bet Labs reports that Aranda is 5-0 against the spread as an underdog against teams rated in the top 15, including four consecutive outright triumphs.
Navy (+15.5) over UCF
It is difficult to cover large spreads versus service academies. The triple-option offense swiftly depletes the clock, leaving little time for scoring. Air Force, Army, and Navy are a combined 42-22-2 against the spread as underdogs of 14 or more points since 2005, per Bet Labs.
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Navy and UCF are a fantastic fit. John Rhys-Plumlee, quarterback of the University of Central Florida, directs a run-pass option offense that has decimated opposition defenses. However, a team can thwart UCF’s attack by stopping the run. The Midshipmen have the ability to do so, as they rank ninth in yards per carry allowed and third in Football Outsiders’ Defensive Line Yards statistic.
Meanwhile, Navy’s triple-option offense will run the time and keep the game within three points. Notable is the fact that Navy is 5-0 against the spread on the road this season, while UCF is in a possible slumbering state following their dramatic victory against Tulane.
Colorado State (+21.5) beats Air Force (+21.5)
In contrast, it is difficult for military academies to cover large spans. Bet Labs reports that the three service academies have a combined record of 20-30-2 against the spread as favorites of 21 or more points.
Again, the triple-option offensive depletes time, leaving little opportunity for scoring. Additionally, Air Force plays at the slowest speed in the nation, as measured by seconds per play (32).
Colorado State’s football squad is terrible. In contrast, the Rams have produced their three best offensive performances in the last four weeks, with a 468-yard effort against San Jose State in Week 9 being their best.
While Colorado State’s pass defense has been its Achilles’ heel this season, the Rams’ rush defense ranks 54th in Expected Points Added per run play allowed.
Do you wager on college football?
I’m willing to wager that Colorado State cannot fall behind by more than three touchdowns given the game script and opponent.