During the height of COVID, families with young children fled big cities in significant numbers, resulting in a population decline in 68 percent of large metropolitan counties.
According to recent research by the Economic Innovation Group (EIG), big metropolitan counties reported a 3.7 percent overall population decline and a 5.4 percent decline in children under the age of five.
New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Santa Clara were among the places that suffered the most losses; the report noted that a shortage of reasonably priced housing was one of the major contributing causes in the fall.
One of the study’s main authors, Connor O’Brien, expressed astonishment at the results and the speed at which individuals have left big cities.
‘What shocked me really was the sheer rate of change,’ O’Brien told Fortune.
‘To see a city lose 5 percent or 10 percent of its young kids over the course of a year or two, I don’t think anyone imagined that was really possible before the pandemic.
‘That really stood out to us as ‘Woah the fates of cities could change much faster than we thought before.’
The highest decrease in children under five was recorded in Manhattan, where there was a loss of 9.5 percent, per the statistics. Following closely behind with losses of 6.8 and 6.7 percent each was Brooklyn and Queens.
Santa Clara County led the pack on the West Coast with a loss of 6.2 percent, followed by Los Angeles at 5.6 percent.
Miami-Dade witnessed a 4.2 percent exodus, while Cook County, which includes Chicago, saw a 5.3 percent decline in the population of children under five.
The persistent declines are consistent with the decline of people under the age of 18, despite the fact that researchers admitted that low birth rates and a decline in immigration played a part in the decline.
‘The pandemic era sparked a sharp acceleration of these losses, with the rate of decline of children living in large cities exceeding that of the country as a whole and all other county type by a wide margin,’ the researchers wrote.
The analysis also supports a March article from the EIG that indicated large urban counties do not take long to make the majority of areas experience the fastest population increase.
According to the report, suburbs, minor cities, and city edges made up the remaining nine counties in 2021, but major cities were responsible for 14 of the 15 counties with the highest growth in 2011.
Collin County, Texas, Riverside County, California, and Fort Bend County, Texas, were some of the most well-liked suburban counties where people relocated.
One of the concerns researchers mentioned was the high expense of living in big cities. According to the most recent data from real estate brokerage company Douglas Elliman, Manhattan’s average rental price touched another all-time high in June, peaking at more than $5,000 per month.
The majority of landlords in New York City adhere to the rule that a renter’s annual income must be at least 40 times the monthly rent, which means that people seeking for apartments in Manhattan are currently expected to make more than $200,000 a year in order to be considered.
Zillow reports that the average rent in Los Angeles is $3,190, a 15% increase from the previous year, and that the typical property costs over $1 million. The typical house in Santa Clara is worth $1.7 million.
The overall decline in enrolment in Kindergarten and Pre-K, according to the EIG experts, is consistent with their results.
According to the National Institute for Early Education Research, the number of children enrolled in Pre-K programs who were eligible decreased for the first time in 20 years in the 2020–2021 school year.
Despite expanding its public preschool program to three-year-olds during the epidemic, which inflated total numbers, New York City’s pre-K program for four-year-olds witnessed a fall in enrolment of almost 13,000 pupils, according to EIG experts.
‘Chicago’s public preschools had an initial decrease in enrollment of over 30% in 2020, a trend that has only somewhat abated; in the 2021–22 school year, enrollment still remained 12 percent below 2019 levels.’
O’Brien warned that the decline in toddlers could cost large urban counties big in terms of tax dollars and possible school closures.
‘Long term if you see a continuing outflow of families from cities, that undermines their tax base and school funding,’ O’Brien told Forbes. ‘You’re maybe looking at having to close schools, having to cut offerings, all sorts of
things, because it’s happening so fast that districts aren’t able to adjust their capital investments at the same pace.’
He added that cities needed to act now in to make themselves more appealing to families and stave off the population decline.
‘Cities have to ask themselves how they remain hospitable to families, and particularly families with young kids,’ he said. ‘And it’s something I don’t think any places have paid attention to.’