Longtime Democrats have held the U.S. House seats in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas, but Republicans have set their sights on three border districts. The flipping of the Rio Grande Valley would not only signal a sea change in Texas politics, but it might also lead to the Republicans retaking the House.
The Rio Grande Valley runs hundreds of kilometers along the Mexican border. In West Texas, the 23rd Congressional District has historically flipped between Democrats and Republicans, although Democrats’ best chance to flip in 2018 failed when Republican Will Hurd won by less than 1,000 votes, and after he retired in 2020, Republican Tony Gonzalez won by more than 11,000 votes.
Three further border districts to the east have been longstanding Democratic strongholds. Since 2002, Rep. Henry Cuellar has represented the 28th Congressional District, which was redistricted this cycle to become more liberal. In 2020 and 2022, however, he faced primary challenges from former intern Jessica Cisneros, who was endorsed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and other progressives. Cuellar prevailed in the 2022 runoff election by less than 300 votes.
Even though Cuellar was not the target of an FBI inquiry earlier this year, his home was still searched. He denied any misconduct.
He now faces Cassy Garcia, a Republican and former staffer to Senator Ted Cruz.
In 2016, when Hillary Clinton won the 15th Congressional District, Vicente Gonzalez was first elected to represent the district. However, due to redistricting, the 15th Congressional District is now one that former President Donald Trump would have won by three points, leaving Gonzalez to try his luck in the new 34th Congressional District, which former President Joe Biden would have won by 16 points in 2020.
Democratic Representative Filomen Vega, who resigned earlier this year, vacated the old 34th Congressional District. Mayra Flores, a Republican, won the seat in the May special election for the district’s old lines, which were less blue than the new district. Gonzalez did not run. In her winning speech on May 1, she stated that the region had been “overlooked.”
Since Flores’s unexpected victory, Republicans have invested significantly in the new 34th District, and voters must now choose between two incumbents. Democrats pointed the finger at a lack of interest and investment, two themes that persist in November.
In Gonzalez’s old district, the 15th, Democrat Michelle Vallejo has been fighting Republican Monica de la Cruz for the seat. According to the Texas Tribune, the DCCC and the House Majority PAC chose not to spend money on advertisements in the race, an indication of national Democrats’ lack of interest in the contest.
Greg Abbott, the state’s Republican governor, will conduct his election night party in McAllen, which is part of the 15th Congressional District, as an indication of the optimism with which Republicans view the region.