Violence is an enduring characteristic of Nigerian elections. It occurs during all three phases of the political cycle: prior to, on, and following election day.
The majority of pre-election violence occurs during party primaries, when candidates are selected, and during campaigns.
It is reported that about 1,149 persons, including officials of the Independent National Electoral Commission and security officers, were slain during the three elections held in 2011, 2015, and 2019.
In the past, desperate politicians employed goons to perpetrate acts of violence. The proliferation of weaponry and the rise of non-state armed groups in Nigeria have made election security management much more complicated.
Our recent analysis of the Nigerian election of 2023 indicates that the operations of these armed groups are already impacting the election security’s fundamental elements. Abductions of election commission employees and attacks on their offices and critical equipment have occurred.
In Nigeria’s south-east region, the frequency and severity of attacks on election security have been especially notable. The zone consists of five states: Ebonyi, Enugu, Abia, Anambra, and Imo, and has approximately 11.49 million registered voters out of a total population of approximately 22 million.
Our recently released article identifies the rising trend of attacks on electoral materials and election commission workers in the south-east area of Nigeria, as well as its implications for the success of the 2023 Nigerian presidential election.
ACTORS AND ENABLERS OF VIOLENCE
In recent years, violent attacks by armed groups have targeted INEC headquarters in Nigeria’s southeast. Between 2019 and 2022, at least 134 events involving INEC offices and personnel have been recorded.
The attacks did not occur in isolation. Instead, they are embedded in a complicated web of violent attacks orchestrated by numerous non-state armed groups in the region.
In Nigeria, these include cults, the Indigenous People of Biafra, communal militia, political thugs, pastoralists, and the infamous “unknown gunmen.”
The activities of these organisations continue to increase despite state repression.
In addition, there is a risk that politicians looking for an electoral advantage may politicize and even incentivize the violence.
The Indigenous Peoples of Biafra are subjected to violence by security services. It is nearly convenient for state officials to link these attacks to IPOB, given that its members were supposedly responsible for the majority of attacks on government institutions before to the region’s most recent descent into widespread violence.
Nonetheless, a comprehensive comprehension of the causes and dynamics of violence in the region may provide a more effective foundation for action.
RISING INCIDENTS OF VIOLENT ATTACK
The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data repository indicates that 970 occurrences of general violence were documented between January 1, 2019 and January 6, 2023. According to reports, 1,360 people were killed.
The information comes from local groups and media outlets. Numerous incidents likely go undocumented.
About sixty percent of these attacks were perpetrated by unknown gunmen. Indigenous People of Biafra conducted 129 attacks, while community militia conducted 101. Since 2019, there have been around 31 attacks on electoral commission offices in the region. In 2022, over 30% were reported.
The assault by an armed group on the electoral commission’s headquarters in Owerri Municipality, Imo state, on December 12, 2022, is an example of a recent incident. Two policemen were among the five fatalities.
The governor of the state asserted that desperate politicians in the state were responsible for the attack. The Nigerian Police Force’s Imo state command attributed the incidents to Indigenous People of Biafra and its militant wing, Eastern Security Network.
The event represented the third attack on the electoral commission’s facilities in Imo State in the past two weeks, following similar assaults on the commission’s offices in Orlu and Oru West.
COMMISSION ATTACK
On 15 January 2023, unknown gunmen also assaulted the commission’s office in Enugu South Local Government Area, killing one police officer. The lone administrator of Ideato North Local Government Area in Imo state was recently beheaded by gunmen.
The escalation, magnitude, and scope of violent attacks against opposition party members, security agents, electoral commission staff, and election equipment create significant worries over the possibility of a free and fair election in the south-east states.
This has substantial ramifications for the region, political parties, candidates, and the nation as a whole.
Immediate social and economic repercussions are being felt by the zone. In the south-east, for instance, insecurity and sit-at-home protests have caused significant economic losses estimated at about N4 trillion ($8.7 billion) in two years.
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