An latest election estimate suggests that Democrats may lose between 12 and 25 seats next month, providing yet another indication that their efforts to keep control of Congress are facing growing difficulties.
The projection, made by the Cook Political Report, follows Republican increases in general opinion surveys, indications of strong early voting participation in several states, and predictions that more incumbent Democrats are now in toss-up races.
Earlier signs suggested that even Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY), the head of the House Democratic campaign committee, was vying for re-election.
A victory of that size would be sufficient to unseat House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her Democratic majority, fundamentally altering Washington’s political landscape. Currently, Democrats have a majority in the House, 220-212.
After the Supreme Court reversed Roe v. Wade last summer, Democrats have continued to attack Republicans on abortion issues, and some Democratic candidates have found methods to separate themselves from the national brand in competitive districts.
Many Democrats are still amazingly polling ahead of President Biden and are still in great competition in red and purple areas.
According to political analyst Dave Wasserman, some of the Democrats’ greatest problems are in blue states like New York, Oregon, Connecticut, and even Rhode Island, where they are frantically trying to hold onto seats that Biden won handily in 2020.
Despite having a significant financial advantage over their opponents, several Democratic candidates have more money to spend than their Republican opponents. A large portion of it is going to areas that Biden comfortably won in 2020.
Biden is getting ready to spend $18 million to strengthen the two party committees because if Republicans take over, they may potentially have a drastically reduced capacity to pass legislation and launch a number of probes.
According to CNN, this entails sending $10 million to each of the two party committees and generating an additional $8 million over the next several weeks.
The assistance is necessary for the incumbent House Democrats who have been pushing the Biden agenda.
In an exurban district that Biden won by 7 points in 2020, Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia is facing a challenge from Prince William County Supervisor Yesli Vega.
The former CIA agent defeated Republican Dave Bratt in 2018, but she is now running in a district that has been redrew.
In Alaska, where Mary Peltola defeated Sarah Palin in a ranked-choice election to replace the late Rep. Don Young, things are going the Democrats’ way.
Palin praised incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R), who said that she would support Peltola. In an effort to force a runoff, Palin and Republican Nick Begich have been attacking each other. Cook now assigns the new incumbent a “lean Democratic” rating in the contest.
Inflation and Americans’ economic worries are on the Republicans’ side. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who may take over as speaker if Republicans win power, is also helping the cause. After making peace with Donald Trump on January 6, McCarthy has begun funding competitive races via his Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC.
In a newly formed district north of New York City, Maloney will compete against Republican assemblyman Mike Lawer, who is in his first term.
Maloney has been extensively campaigned against by the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Congressional Leadership Fund, both of which are connected to House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy. They have outspent Democratic organizations by a $3.5 million to $384,000 margin.
Joe Biden, the president, projected a change on Monday.
He remarked at the offices of the Democratic National Committee, “You know, whether we preserve control of the Senate and the House is a significant matter, and so far we’re racing against the flow, and we’re beating the tide.”
According to him, polls have been “all over the place,” with Republicans leading Democrats and vice versa. But I believe it will end with one more shift: Democrats in the lead.