Analysis shows that Covid cannot be held completely responsible for the size of the NHS backlog and that waiting lists would have remained at “alarming” levels even if the epidemic had never occurred.
Due to current constraints on the health system, experts predict that even if the virus had never arrived, the NHS in England would have anticipated a waiting list of roughly 5.3 million people at the end of May 2022.
They cautioned that Covid has merely hastened the long-term trajectory of poor NHS performance, even though the waiting list is currently expanding at a “much quicker” rate than it was prior to the pandemic.
The QualityWatch initiative, a collaboration between the Nuffield Trust and the Health Foundation, is where the findings are from. According to its researchers, the size of the NHS backlog cannot be entirely attributable to Covid but is instead an expected result of the collision between a pandemic and a health system that was already overburdened.
Analysis shows that Covid cannot be held completely responsible for the size of the NHS backlog and that waiting lists would have remained at “alarming” levels even if the epidemic had never occurred. Image: a file image
According to NHS statistics for May, 6.61 million individuals were in line for normal hospital procedures. However, analysis reveals that this is just 1.3 million more than what the health service would have anticipated even in the absence of Covid.
Similar to May 2022, over 1.5 million patients were on the diagnostic waiting list; however, they discovered that if pre-pandemic patterns had persisted, this number could have reached 1.2 million.
There is no disputing the seismic upheaval that Covid has had on health and care systems, but the epidemic itself cannot be considered as the only cause of the worrisome wait times for care, according to Nuffield Trust Fellow Jessica Morris.
Due to current constraints on the health system, experts predict that even if the virus had never arrived, the NHS in England would have anticipated a waiting list of roughly 5.3 million people at the end of May 2022. Image: a file image
According to her, waiting times were getting longer even before Covid because of a “demand, personnel, and resource mismatch.”
Over 4.4 million people were on the treatment waiting list at the start of the pandemic, she continued. And if current trends had persisted, we most likely would have had a waiting list of 5.3 million people by the end of May this year.
This reflects a long-standing imbalance in demand, staffing, and resource availability.
The epidemic has simply increased previously existing backlogs for routine care, growing A&E wait times, lengthier ambulance response times, and waiting times for cancer treatment. This has only increased how difficult it is for the NHS to recover.
The QualityWatch initiative, a collaboration between the Nuffield Trust and the Health Foundation, is where the findings are from. Image: a file image
Patricia Marquis, director of the Royal College of Nursing in England, commented on the report, saying: “The incoming prime minister should put this report at the top of their in-tray following today’s announcement.”
Its message is crystal clear: even before the epidemic, the English NHS was in dire straights, and waiting lists would have skyrocketed even without Covid.
Our overworked, underpaid, and unappreciated nursing staff are all too aware of the fundamental demand, staffing, and resource mismatch. Patients are suffering as a result, too. We will be conducting a vote among our members the next week. Nursing is currently considering going on strike to attract the attention of ministers.