Thursday, Russia once again bombarded Ukraine with cruise and other missiles, striking targets from east to west, including “critical infrastructure.”
A 79-year-old woman was killed and at least seven others were injured, according to Ukrainian authorities.
Russian forces employed a range of missile types, launching 36 in a two-hour burst overnight, according to Ukraine’s military leader, Valery Zalutynyy. He added that air defence batteries intercepted 16 of them, a lower success rate than against some prior Russian waves.
Western officials have been expressing warnings for weeks over Russia’s potential to conduct a new offensive. The strikes come despite claims that Moscow’s forces are critically depleted, with NATO intelligence estimating that Russia is losing 2,000 men for every 100 yards gained.
Ben Wallace, Britain’s defense secretary, stated on Wednesday that ’97 percent of the entire Russian army is in Ukraine,’ while the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) reported that Russia has lost approximately half of its best battle tanks since Vladimir Putin launched his invasion nearly a year ago.
The research tank’s ‘Military Balance 2023′ study – a widely anticipated annual bible on countries’ military sizes – paints a grim future for the Kremlin at a time when Kyiv is scheduled to get main battle tanks and other high-powered weapons manufactured in the West.
Russian missiles targeted targets in the north, west, south, east, and central regions of Ukraine, according to Ukrainian authorities.
They reported that the country’s southern defenses intercepted eight Kalibr missiles launched from a Black Sea vessel.
Andriy Yermak, the chief of the Ukrainian presidential office, stated that Russian soldiers ‘changed their tactics’ for the attack, including ‘active reconnaissance’ and ‘fake targets.’
He did not provide further information, but it is possible that Russian forces are using the strikes to test for vulnerabilities in Ukrainian air defences that have been bolstered by Western-supplied weapons systems and have had a high rate of success against previous Russian missile and drone barrages.
According to the regional governor, one of the nocturnal attacks caused casualties and destroyed homes in the eastern city of Pavlohrad.
Governor Serhiy Lysak reported that a 79-year-old woman was killed and at least seven others, including two who were hospitalized, were injured.
Governor stated that the strike destroyed seven homes, damaged thirty others, and ignited a fire at an industrial site that was extinguished within hours by rescue personnel.
Maksym Kozitskyi, a regional governor in western Ukraine, stated that a fire broke out at a “critical” infrastructure complex in the Lviv province.
He did not provide further information.
Lviv is located in the far west of Ukraine and, as a result, has remained comparatively untouched by Russian attacks in comparison to cities in the east, where fighting is intense.
However, the city and surrounding region have continued to be bombarded by Russian missiles as Moscow continues its efforts to demoralize Ukraine.
In recent days, questions have been raised as to whether the Russian Armed Forces are actually capable of sustaining such an offensive, amidst claims that Putin is preparing to launch a new all-out assault on Ukraine in an effort to achieve the goals set forth at the start of the war in February 2022 – to overthrow the pro-western government in Kyiv and replace it with a Russian puppet administration.
Wednesday on BBC Radio 4’s Today program, Britain’s Defence Secretary Ben Wallace stated that Russian troops in Ukraine are experiencing “almost First World War levels of attrition and success rates of a matter of metres.”
Concerning what he worries Russia would do next, Mr. Wallace stated, ‘I believe that since General Gerasimov was chosen as the sort of general Ukraine commander a couple of months ago, when Putin removed General Surovikin, we’ve witnessed an effort to push on all fronts.
However, he stated that there is little evidence to suggest a force is assembling. ‘We haven’t actually seen this massing of a single force to punch through, a major offensive – simply an effort to progress, and that has come at a tremendous cost to the Russian army,’ he added.
“We now estimate that 97% of the entire Russian army is in Ukraine, and to put that in perspective, that means that those tens of thousands of miles of border that the Russians have with China, Norway, and Finland, imagine that all those people are now trapped in Ukraine and suffering extremely high casualty rates.
Mr. Wallace stated, “I believe that what Russia is attempting to do is advance, albeit at a human wave rate of almost First World War levels of attrition and with success rates measured in metres rather than kilometers.”
‘I believe what we must ask ourselves – and this is the greatest unknown – is: when you have a president and a general staff that has either a disconnect with reality or no concern for human life, how does that end?
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In its daily update on the ongoing war in Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War stated yesterday that Mr. Wallace’s conclusion that “Russia lacks sufficient mechanized combat power for a breakthrough” was consistent with its most recent estimates.
According to them, the traditional Russian military needs undergo substantial reorganization before recovering the capability to execute effective movement warfare.
‘Wallace’s observations also show that Russia lacks combat-ready reserves capable of executing a large-scale offensive,’ the think tank stated in its update.
In its annual Military Balance report, a significant resource for defense specialists, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) stated that loss rates for some of Russia’s most advanced tank classes were as high as 50 percent, requiring the country to rely on models from the Soviet era.
These have proven especially vulnerable to sophisticated western weapons provided to Ukraine, such as the Javelin hand-held missile launcher, which has been responsible for the destruction of hundreds of Russian tanks since the invasion began almost a year ago, as evidenced by multiple YouTube videos.
They are neither generating or reactivating nearly enough to offset these loss rates. The current size of their armoured fleet at the front is roughly half of what it was at the beginning of the war, according to Henry Boyd, research fellow at the IISS, who spoke to the Reuters news agency.
He believed that Russia lost between 2,000 and 2,300 tanks, while Ukraine lost up to 700. According to Ukraine’s own calculations, Russian casualties are significantly greater.
Ukraine has obtained commitments for approximately one hundred modern tanks from the West, including the United States. Abrams, the German Leopard, and the British Challenger are significantly more capable than the previous Russian variants.
Boyd stated that this could result in less aggressive and less confident tank actions by Russian forces, as crews would be more concerned about the amount of threat posed.
Douglas Barrie, an IISS aerospace expert, stated that Russia’s air force was largely undamaged, operating at a distance due to powerful Ukrainian air defenses and a lack of tactical short-range air-to-surface missiles.
However, he indicated that Russia may employ air power more aggressively and take greater risks to strike Ukrainian ground units.
“From the Ukrainian standpoint, one of the issues is if they must either repel a substantial Russian ground force or mass their own forces… You make yourself susceptible to an aerial strike. ‘At that moment, the Russians may decide to suffer larger losses in order to inflict bigger losses on the opposing side,’ he warned.
A year into the conflict, Russia has been pushed back from the majority of the territory it initially seized, but it continues to partially occupy four districts in the south and east of Ukraine. Kiev has been warning for weeks that a fresh Russian invasion is imminent.
Russia announced on Wednesday that it has breached two reinforced Ukrainian defensive lines on the eastern front and that Ukrainian forces were retreating in portions of the eastern region of Luhansk.
Barrie stated that Western sanctions impeded Russia’s capacity to replace its inventories of imported microprocessor-dependent guided missiles.
Despite President Vladimir Putin’s boasts about Moscow’s capabilities and repeated veiled threats to use nuclear weapons to defend what he considers to be Russian territory, the rate of development of Russia’s next generation of nuclear weapons, he added, remained slow.
Ben Barry, a specialist on ground warfare at the ISS, expressed skepticism that Russia could make significant advances.
He stated, “My assessment is that it will be difficult to concentrate enough credible and competent force to significantly push the Ukrainians back.”
Simultaneously, he stated, ‘it’s not clear to me that Kyiv has sufficient military power to expel Russian forces swiftly… We may anticipate another violent year.
Meanwhile, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the commander of Russia’s deadly mercenary organization Wagner, stated that Russian forces may seize the besieged city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine ‘in March or April’
In his internet remarks, he stated that progress would depend on if ‘the adversary delivers reserves’ and criticized Russia’s’monstrous military bureaucracy’ for failing to capture the Donetsk area city by the end of 2022.
The regions of Luhansk and Donetsk comprise the Donbas, the industrial heartland of Ukraine, which is presently partially occupied by Russia. Putin desires complete control of the Donbas, and his army is currently focused on capturing the little Donetsk city of Bakhmut.
The previous day, according to Ukrainian military analysts, Russian troops made a number of unsuccessful raids on settlements to the north and south of Bakhmut, including the town of Vuhledar. According to reports, Russia has suffered significant casualties.
The New York Times reported on Wednesday that Ukraine’s Colonel Dmytrashkivskyi stated that two of Russia’s most elite brigades, the 40th and 155th Naval Infantry Brigades, were devastated surrounding the town.
Analyst Oleh Zhdanov stated, ‘Things are really difficult for our soldiers in the region, since Russian forces are being deployed in large numbers.’
The capture of Bakhmut would provide Russia with a stepping stone to advance on two larger cities, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, farther west in Donetsk, so reviving Moscow’s momentum prior to the 24th of February.
In an effort to offset this, NATO partner members are increasing production of artillery shells to keep up with Ukraine’s rapid usage of these weapons.
Since the crisis began, Ukraine has received billions of dollars in military aid, mainly from the United States, which has contributed more than $27.4 billion.
Senior U.S. officials have recommended Ukraine to postpone a major offensive until the most recent shipment of U.S. weaponry arrives and training is delivered.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated in an evening address, ‘We must ensure that this spring it is evident that Ukraine is progressing towards triumph.’
Russia characterizes the invasion as a “special military operation” against security threats, and has interpreted the delivery of heavy weaponry to Ukraine as evidence that the West is intensifying the conflict. Ukraine and its allies characterize Russia’s moves as an imperialist territorial grab.
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