Welcome to the startling explosion of the 2020s.
These are prosperous days. With a new collective bargaining agreement in place following the lockout of the offseason prior, baseball has entered a new era of spending. Steve Cohen is spearheading the campaign, but the Steinbrenner Yankees, Phillies, and Padres are not far behind.
Of the eight largest contracts by total dollars awarded in free agency (so excluding extensions) in Major League Baseball history, three (Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, and Xander Bogaerts) are less than a week old, including the two largest (Judge and Correa, who agreed to a 13-year, $350 million deal with the Giants on Tuesday night, per The Post’s Jon Heyman). This offseason, more than $3 billion has been committed to free agents, and dozens of free agents remain unsigned. Prior to two offseasons, teams paid approximately $1.3 billion to free agents.
The top three contracts (Corey Seager, Kris Bryant, and Marcus Semien) totaled $682 million during the summer prior. The top three contracts (Judge, Correa, and Turner) this offseason have totaled $1.01 billion.
At least two more players (Dansby Swanson and Carlos Rodon) are anticipated to join the club of players with nine-figure contracts. There has never been a better moment to be a free agent, which no one seems to have predicted.
Xander Bogaerts’ $280 million contract with the Padres was just one of the eye-popping deals in a free-agent market that has now reached nearly $3 billion.
AP
Jon Heyman, who is as knowledgeable as anybody, assessed this offseason’s crop of free agents and, with the assistance of an independent analyst, forecasted how much each will earn in early November. Six weeks after the publication of the story, the vast majority of players who have signed have outperformed expectations.
The top 15 free agents who signed contracts this offseason were guaranteed $251,7 million more than Heyman’s analyst expected. We are not singling out Heyman, whose expert has proven to be more accurate than the majority.
Consider Judge as an example. Here are some of the top magazines’ most accurate predictions on the contract the superstar would sign:
The Post: nine-year, $330 million contract
Eight years and $332 million: MLB Trade Rumors
The Athletic: eight years and $330,000,000
FanGraphs: $915 million over nine years
Crowdsourcing at FanGraphs: eight years and $300 million
Each media undervalued Judge’s nine-year, $360 million megadeal with the Yankees, which the Padres could have beaten if he desired to play for San Diego.
After rejecting a $213.5 million extension offer in the spring, Aaron Judge leveraged his MVP season into the largest free-agent contract in Major League Baseball history.
We anticipated that Jacob deGrom, an unequaled ace with numerous injury red flags, would receive $125 million over three years. According to a crowdsourced view on FanGraphs, he would receive $120 million over three seasons. Zero outlets in this sample anticipated a team would offer deGrom a contract longer than three years, and the most optimistic forecast for deGrom was $141 million over three years.
DeGrom signed a five-year, $185 million contract with the Rangers.
Not only the monetary sacrifices but also the length of time have been astounding. The average length of the ten largest contracts awarded during the previous offseason was 5.8 years. The average length of this offseason has been 7.4 years.
This offseason’s crop of players is far from flawless. There are numerous worries around the aging of a behemoth (not a Giant) such as Judge. There are numerous questions regarding the adaptability of athletes who rely on speed, such as Turner, in their late 30s. Turner, whose crowdsourced deal estimate was for seven years and $210 million, signed with the Phillies for $300 million for 11 years. Only twice in the past seven years has Brandon Nimmo played more than 100 games in a season due to injury. A player that the general public estimated to be worth $100 million over five seasons will return to the Mets for $162 million over eight seasons.
The duration (11 years) and value ($300 million) of Trea Turner’s contract with the Philadelphia Phillies as a free agent were both unexpected.
Cohen’s presence undoubtedly contributes to the opulence. When the sport’s wealthiest owner took over the Mets in late 2020, he pledged to transform them into the East Coast Dodgers: a powerhouse with the finances to sign massive free agents and the organizational structure to develop its own prospects. Due to the immaturity of the Mets’ farm system, Cohen is spending astronomically — exactly as the Dodgers did in the early 2010s, which allowed them to rebuild and restock on the fly. Cohen has surpassed the highest luxury tax level and will establish a new record with a squad of 40 players that would cost him more than $400 million. It made Tuesday night’s rumors that the Mets were interested in Correa, likely to play third base with Francisco Lindor, appear less implausible.
Hal Steinbrenner has earned the respect of Yankees fans who were first dubious of his readiness to open his checkbook by investing in Judge. The surprising Padres, fresh off a romp to the National League Championship Series with a star-studded lineup that helped them attract their most fans since 2004, have kept pace with the spending by signing Bogaerts for 11 years and $280 million. After a spectacular run to the World Series, the Phillies are once again spending “stupid” money on contracts like Turner’s. The slumbering Giants have finally awakened.
Perhaps the Phillies’ success last season, in which they squeezed into the postseason as the National League’s sixth seed in an expanded format and reached the World Series, has something to do with the extravagance, inspiring other teams to work harder for an additional playoff berth. Perhaps the windfalls from the sale of Major League Baseball’s interest in BAMTech to Disney last month, which netted the streaming technology services business $900 million, are trickling down to the free-agent class. After a new CBA is signed, perhaps there will be fewer concerns about the sport’s future. Or perhaps there are fewer concerns about the dramatic reductions of elderly players because sportsmen understand their bodies better than ever before.
The Phillies’ improbable march to the World Series from the sixth spot in the playoffs may have persuaded fringe contenders to increase their spending.
Cohen, a Mets fan before to becoming the owner, is clearly motivated by victory. As the Mets unveil their free-agent jewels — David Robertson, José Quintana, Brooks Raley, and general manager Billy Eppler will address the media on Wednesday, followed by Brandon Nimmo’s news conference on Thursday — the secondary traits of Mets targets appear to have played a role.
In their announcement of Nimmo’s eight-year contract, the Mets did not emphasize their opinion that the outfielder had turned a physical corner and could remain healthy for the remainder of his career. Instead, the Mets made it obvious that Nimmo, whose smile never fades and who has become a fan favorite, is exactly the type of person they want in their organization.
The Mets re-signed Brandon Nimmo in part because of his cheerful disposition.
“Brandon has been a member of the Mets family for over a decade, and we are thrilled that he and his wife Chelsea have elected to remain with the team,” Cohen stated in a press release. Brandon has made numerous contributions to the Club both on and off the field throughout his career. His tenacity and charisma contribute to the uniqueness of this team.”
The New York branch of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America recently presented Edwin Diaz with the Ben Epstein/Dan Castellano Good Guy Award. Diaz recently re-signed a five-year, $102 million contract. With the most electrifying walk-out sequence in baseball, Diaz delivers an enthusiastic attitude and a chorus of trumpets.
The Mets desired a closer who recorded an incredible 1.01 ERA last season, but Diaz’s demeanor is one that both fans and teammates desire.
Edwin Diaz’s entry was heralded by Mrs. and Mr. Met, and “Narco” was sung by the Citi Field crowd.
“Edwin possesses all the qualities we want in a closer,” Eppler said in a statement. He has the stuff to compete with any hitter in the game, is a fierce competitor, and has a burning desire to be the best. We are happy he will be our bullpen’s cornerstone moving forward.”
The Mets, whose clubhouse received a thumbs-down for the 2021 season, continue to place importance on traits other than skill.
The true MVP?
A month ago, Jacque Vaughn responded to a question with a smile and a snappy rejoinder.
“He’s our MVP, and we’ll keep it that way,” the Nets head coach remarked when asked about Kevin Durant’s inclusion in early MVP discussions. That is sufficient for us.
Can you potentially be the world’s best player and still be underrated?
Kevin Durant deserves to be considered for a second MVP award.
Durant is quietly putting together what is shaping out to be the second-best season of his career, despite all the Kyrie Irving and Ben Simmons headlines that have arisen in the first third of the Nets’ season.
The gold standard is his 2013–14 season, the only one in which he won the Most Valuable Player title. Durant, then 25 years old, led the Thunder to the Western Conference Finals, where they were defeated by the Spurs in six games. The young Durant averaged 32 points, 7.4 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 1.3 steals per regular-season game while participating in all but one contest. He fired 50.3% from the field, which is as efficient as ever.
Now that Durant is 34 and has recovered from an Achilles tear, he has become more effective. His current field goal percentage of 55.9 percent would be his greatest ever. Following another 30-point performance in Monday’s victory over the Wizards, he now averages 30 points per game. Durant has a ridiculous 62.9 percent success rate on 2-point field goals, while Simmons, who practically only attempts layups, has a 61.9 percent success rate.
If he stays healthy, which is a big “if” for a player who averages 36.7 minutes per game, Durant is creating an MVP case despite the fact that so much has gone wrong around him.
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